Premier League relegation odds 2025/26: Predictions and tips

TOP flight football is about far more than who wins the league, and there are plenty of differing narratives across a Premier League season.

There is the race for a top four place and European qualification, who wins the domestic cups, and of course, the relegation dogfight. 

The fight for survival can be one of the most exciting battles over the league season. In recent seasons, it’s been a bit of a foregone conclusion, but if we get a handful of teams in there, it’s just as exciting as the race to win the title.

The three promoted teams are often the ones to go down in their first campaign. And the latest Premier League relegation odds suggest Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland are likely to do the same this season. 

However, with Leeds and Burnley both having recent Premier League experience, they will feel they have the tools to beat the drop. As for Sunderland, they are effectively starting from scratch after an eight-year hiatus from top flight football. 

Quick Premier League relegation bets for 2025/26

• Relegation treble – Sunderland, Burnley, and Brentford – 7/1 with bet365
• Sunderland to be bottom at Christmas – 5/2 with bet365
• Sunderland to finish bottom – 8/5 with BetMGM
• Arsenal to win the title / Sunderland to finish bottom double – 15/2 odds with BetMGM

2025/26 Premier League relegation odds

• Burnley – 1/3
• Sunderland – 2/6
• Leeds – 10/11
• Wolverhampton – 10/3
• Brentford – 10/3
• West Ham – 11/2
• Fulham – 7/1
• Crystal Palace – 7/1
• Everton – 7/1
• Bournemouth – 9/1
• Nottm Forest – 9/1
• Brighton – 16/1
• Man City – 20/1
• Man Utd – 25/1
• Tottenham – 40/1
• Chelsea – 100/1
• Aston Villa – 150/1
• Newcastle – 200/1
• Arsenal – 1000/1
• Liverpool – 1000/1

Odds provided by bet365 are subject to change.

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The current standings

The statistics are telling and play a part when bookies produce their latest Premier League relegation odds – they show that the three promoted clubs are more likely than ever to go back down.

If any of Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland want to prove the bookies wrong, it is imperative they don’t get cut adrift early in the campaign. Likewise, the same rules apply to teams like Wolves and Brentford, the two sides the bookies think are the most likely to get dragged into the relegation battle as the season evolves. 

The promoted trio

The size of the task facing Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland won’t be lost on them. Highlighting the ever increasing gulf in class between the bottom of the Premier League and the top of the Championship, the three promoted clubs have returned to the Championship at the first time of asking for the past two seasons. 

Bridging the gap is getting more and more difficult. As well as needing to perform well above their own level, any promoted team looking to survive is now also needing an established Premier League club to perform way below their usual standard.  

This is why the bookmakers have the promoted teams as their main favourites to be relegated this season. Below we assess their chances of survival in more detail:

Sunderland

Sunderland gained promotion via the playoffs. They finished 26 points behind Leeds and Burnley in the Championship last season. They also looked second best in both their playoff semi-final and final victories. 

However, they somehow found a way to get to Wembley and clinch the final place in this season’s Premier League. Unfortunately, though, the Black Cats were dealt a huge blow before the season even got started with the departure of Jobe Bellingham for Borussia Dortmund. 

Sunderland would have known Bellingham was set to leave, and will no doubt have had plans in place for his departure. But replacing a player of that quality won’t be easy. A like-for-like replacement will most probably be looking for a move to a club with better prospects of staying in the Premier League.

However, Sunderland have been busy in the transfer market as they seek to fill the void left by Bellingham. The Black Cats have splashed out big fees for Simon Adingra (£20M), Habib Diarra (£30M), Enzo Le Fée (£20M), Nah Sadiki (£17.5M) and Chemsdine Talbi (£19M).

Despite the significant investment in the playing squad, Régis Le Bris still faces one hell of a job keeping his team in the Premier League.

Burnley

Burnley’s promotion campaign was built on the back of a solid defence. Scott Parker did an excellent job after taking over from Vincent Kompany, with his team only missing out on top spot to Leeds United on goal difference.

The Clarets scored 69 goals on their way to claiming 100 points, they were the third highest scorers in the division. However, their most telling statistic was conceding just 16 goals in 46 matches. 

Replicating a record like that in the Premier League will be impossible. The gulf in class between goalscorers in the Premier League and Championship is huge, meaning the Clarets won’t be able to defend their way to Premier League safety. 

In an effort to bridge the gap at both ends of the pitch, Burnley have signed Marcus Edwards from Sporting Lisbon and Kyle Walker from Manchester City. The signing of Walker is a massive coup, not only will his arrival provide Premier League experience to the Clarets’ backline, but it will also tell other high profile players considering a move to England that Burnley is a club well worth considering. 

Leeds United

Despite rumours about his job security, Daniel Farke has remained in charge at Elland Road. However, a poor start for Leeds will likely see Farke pay the price with his job. 

The club have been strengthening their squad with the big money arrivals of Anton Stach (£17.4M) from Hoffenheim and Sean Longstaff (£12M) from Newcastle.  

Leeds’ striker Joël Piroe was the top scorer in the Championship last season with 19 goals in 46 matches. The Championship Golden Boot winner also contributed seven assists, highlighting his all round ability to lead the line.

While Piroe has scored plenty in the Championship, he hasn’t yet proved himself in the Premier League. We have to suspect that Leeds will need another striker who can contribute regular goals if they are to stay up. 

They do have Premier League experience in Daniel James, and out of the three promoted teams, the Elland Road outfit look the best equipped to prove the bookies wrong and survive. 

Last season’s strugglers

Two teams that found themselves flirting with the drop last season were Wolves and West Ham. Both comfortably survived in the end, but this was predominantly down to the shortcomings of the three promoted teams. 

Despite being established in the Premier League, Wolves and West Ham can’t keep relying on the promoted clubs not being up to the required standard for their survival, and this season could be pivotal for both if significant improvements are not made.

Wolves

Wolves – and in particular their then boss Gary O’Neil – could consider themselves very unlucky with the cruel hand they received from the fixture computer at the beginning of last season. The men from Molineux had a brutal start, beginning with a 6-2 loss to Chelsea and a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal.

Wolves spent the first half of the season in the bottom three and a considerable amount of time sitting fourth from bottom in the second half of the campaign. A change in manager saw Vítor Pereira take over from Gary O’Neil, and the former Porto boss steadied the ship and eventually steered Wolves to 16th in the table, a comfortable 17 points clear of the drop zone.

However, there have been further setbacks for the Midlanders this summer. Matheus Cunha and Rayan Aït-Nouri have both departed. The loss of Cunha’s goals will leave a huge void to fill. The Brazilian contributed 15 goals and six assists from his 33 matches in the Old Gold. 

Without Cunha’s goal involvements, Wolves would probably have gone down last season. If they can’t find a way to replace him, they are likely to get dragged into the dogfight at the bottom again.

West Ham United

West Ham decided they were ready to move on from the second David Moyes era last summer. His successor was Julen Lopetegui, but the Spaniard only lasted until January, with the Hammers board finally having enough after reportedly coming close to firing the Spaniard twice earlier in the season.

Graham Potter was Lotetegui’s replacement. The former Brighton and Chelsea boss settled things down in his opening weeks in charge. However, a run that saw West Ham pick up just ten points from their final 11 matches of the season resulted in the natives becoming restless again.

Potter and his West Ham team should be good enough to avoid the drop. The problem at the London Stadium is that the fans make their feelings known. If the season gets off to a poor start, there could be early pressure on Potter and the board. 

It shouldn’t see West Ham dragged into the relegation battle, but it may result in another managerial change.

Furthermore, both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur struggled at the bottom of the table last season. Their presence may have made the performances of the Hammers and others not look as poor as they were. 

The duo aren’t likely to be as bad this time around. The Red Devils have strengthened with top quality signings like Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo, and coach Ruben Amorim will have had a full preseason to prepare his team.

Spurs have also made changes to ensure there is no repeat performance. Winning the Europa League wasn’t enough to save Ange Postecoglou’s job. The Lilywhites have replaced the popular Aussie with Thomas Frank, prising the experienced Premier League manager away from rivals Brentford.   

Who might get dragged in?

Plenty of teams will be looking over their shoulders as the new season gets underway. Premier League survival is a luxury only a handful of clubs have, and teams that were challenging for minor European places last season, could be involved in the fight to avoid the drop this time around. 

Premier League football is competitive. The loss of a key player or even a manager can be the difference between survival and taking the plunge down to the Championship. Some of the teams that could get dragged into the relegation battle are:

Brentford

The Bees have lost Thomas Frank to Spurs. Frank was more than just a manager; he was the heart and soul of Brentford’s time in the Premier League. 

Brentford struggled on the road in the first half of the 2024/25 season. Had that poor form continued – and started to affect their usually strong home performances – they could’ve been dragged into a relegation battle. This was never likely to happen under the guidance of Frank, and Brentford found their rhythm in the second half of the season and comfortably stayed up. 

Brentford will now have to adapt to life without the Dane – his calming influence and guidance will be greatly missed. Stepping up to replace Frank is Keith Andrews. The Irishman has experience of being part of coaching set ups, but has never been the head coach. It looks like an inexperienced and risky appointment by the Bees. 

Andrews will also start life in charge of Brentford without Bryan Mbeumo, who contributed 20 goals and seven assists for the team last season.  

Fulham

The Cottagers had an outstanding 2024/25 season under Marco Silva, finishing 11th on 54 points. It felt like a season of overachievement, but with little activity in the transfer market this summer, the Londoners now feel more like a club who are standing still – which is a dangerous game to play in the top flight.

Silva is also a manager in demand. He has had interest from abroad in the past, but opted to stay in west London. If the former Everton boss doesn’t feel he is getting backed by his club, he may not be so loyal should a similar offer come in for his services this time around. 

Everton

We’ve heard for years how it would be a disaster for Everton to go down ahead of their move to Bramley-Moore Dock. This was true, but a series of great escapes – including a remarkable rescue job by David Moyes last season – means Everton will start life in their new stadium still in the Premier League.

However, it will also be a disaster if Everton go down after their move to Bramley-Moore Dock. And despite last season’s strong finish, this is still possible. 

We’ve seen it before, clubs can struggle to adapt to life in a new home. West Ham had problems adapting to their new London Stadium home, and if Everton are struggling, the ‘new stadium jinx’ narrative will start to develop, adding further pressure onto the manager and his team. 

The bookmakers see Everton as one of those teams who could get dragged into a dogfight, but they are far from one of the favourites to go down.   

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace ended the 2024/25 season in sensational fashion, capping off their strong run of form with a memorable victory in the FA Cup Final. As a result, the Eagles will be competing in Europe next season.

Despite this success, bookmakers still view Palace as potential candidates for a relegation battle – and with good reason!

The club endured a difficult first half of last season, managing just one win in their opening 13 matches. Although they mounted an impressive recovery, such turnarounds are far from guaranteed in a league as competitive as the top flight of English football.

Another concern is Palace’s reliance on Eberechi Eze. Should Eze suffer an injury or be sold to a bigger club, his absence would be extremely difficult for Oliver Glasner’s side to compensate for.

My Premier League relegation betting tips

Preseason bets can be hard to pick ahead of the transfer window closing, but they can also offer some great value if you can get them right. Using the latest odds on Premier League relegation, I’ve listed my best relegation bets below: 

Relegation treble – Sunderland, Burnley, and Brentford

A treble of Sunderland (2/5), Burnley (1/3) and Leeds (10/11) is the obvious call, but this wager only pays 13/5 with bet365. I feel that it will be Sunderland, Burnley and one other. It could well be Leeds, but those odds just aren’t appealing. 

The two other teams I expect to struggle are Brentford (10/3) and Wolves (10/3). 

Brentford have been significantly weakened with the loss of Thomas Frank in the dugout and Bryan Mbeumo on the pitch. Wolves will miss the goal contributions of Matheus Cunha.

I expect both teams to make managerial changes as they look to salvage their respective seasons. However, out of the two, it’s Brentford that I expect to struggle the most. The impact of losing Thomas Frank is likely to be much bigger than many realise.

Pick Sunderland, Burnley, and Brentford for relegation treble at 7/1 with bet365

Bottom at Christmas

With newly promoted sides finding it tougher than ever to pick up points in the Premier League, it is also likely that one of them will prop up the table on Christmas Day – a position which very few, historically, survive from.

Looking at the fixtures, Sunderland are in for a brutally tough December – visiting both Anfield and the Etihad Stadium before hosting Newcastle in the long-awaited return of the Tyne-Wear derby. They’ll then face Man City a second time before the end of 2025, just after what may prove to be a crucial home game with Leeds. 

Speaking of the Yorkshire club, they too have a daunting stretch in late November and early December where they’ll face Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool in the space of seven days. They have a realistic chance of recovering, however, with games against Brentford and Crystal Palace before that festive six-pointer. 

Burnley’s December is fairly middle-of-the-road, with Newcastle away on the 6th looking like the toughest assignment.

Pick Sunderland to be bottom at Christmas at 5/2 with bet365

Sunderland to finish bottom

The bookmakers feel it is a two-horse race between Sunderland and Burnley to finish bottom. I am in total agreement, however, I believe that Burnley’s recent top flight experience will give them the edge over the Black Cats. 

Scott Parker also holds an advantage over Régis Le Bris in the top flight of English football. 

Tip Sunderland to finish bottom at 8/5 with BetMGM

Arsenal to win the title / Sunderland to finish bottom double (15/2)

The landscape of the Premier League changed last season and this year it is not Manchester City who are favourites to win the title. Pep’s team are third in the betting at 3/1, with Liverpool leading the way at 2/1 and Arsenal at 9/4. 

The Gunners have had plenty of trial runs in recent years. And while Liverpool were head and shoulders above everyone last season, Arne Slot has made a lot of changes to his squad this summer, which we feel could affect their early season form.

With uncertainty over Liverpool and Manchester City going through a rebuilding phase, this should finally be Arsenal’s year. 

Combining an Arsenal Premier League title with Sunderland finishing rock bottom pays roughly 15/2.

Get the Arsenal to win the title and Sunderland to finish bottom double at 15/2 with BetMGM

What are the keys to beating the drop?

This is the multi-million pound question, and one that many have seeked the answer to and failed to find.

When Nottingham Forest were promoted in 2022, they stayed up the following season with 38 points, four more than Leicester, who finished third bottom and were relegated. 

Forest literally bought a new squad for their first season back in the Premier League. It was a risky strategy, but it paid off. However, if they had gone down, the club would have been in dire trouble.

To avoid such risks while trying to survive, promoted clubs need to improvise. Shrewd signings are required, the sort that could not only do a job in the Premier League, but also in the Championship if the worst case scenario does occur. 

Promoted clubs also need to quickly learn how to navigate the Premier League and focus on the key fixtures. 

Sam Allardyce was an expert at this. He treated Premier League survival like a game of chess, knowing when to go on the front foot and target points, and when to take a damage-limiting defeat, as he realised goal difference could be a deciding factor at the end of the season. 

Those who can master that have the better chances of staying up. Although, even implementing the above doesn’t guarantee anything these days. 

How to follow the latest Premier League news and results

Staying informed about all things Premier League is vitally important from a betting perspective. 

As well as checking results, it’s also important to keep an eye on websites that offer statistical advice. You may see that a team won 1-0 last weekend, but if you look at the statistics and see their opponents had 66% of the possession and 12 shots on goal, to the winning team’s two, you can get a feel for making a better informed bet on that team’s fixture the following weekend.

Checking team news for injuries and suspensions is a no brainer. Here at The Sun, we bring you all the latest news and base our tips on all the advice we have covered here, and we look for the best odds among football betting sites.

One final bonus tip is to check the following fixtures for the team you are betting on – this is especially important once the European competitions are up and running. There’s nothing worse than backing a team to win on Saturday, only to discover their star striker is on the bench – rested for a Champions League clash you didn’t even realise was coming up.

Premier League 2025/26 FAQs

1. How often has a change of manager helped a team climb out and away from relegation trouble?

Changing managers midseason can sometimes be a masterstroke and sometimes end in disaster. A managerial change can quite often spark an upturn in form, but it’s not a guaranteed fix.

It worked for Wolves last season, who sacked Gary O’Neil and replaced him with Vítor Pereira. While it didn’t work for Leicester City, who sacked Steve Cooper and replaced him with Ruud van Nistelrooy. 

2. Can progress in the cups hinder a team’s chances of surviving?

Good cup runs have mixed results. Extra games can increase the work toll on players and result in fatigue, this can be dangerous for teams with small squads. The upside is that it can boost confidence, potentially leading to stronger league performances.

3. How many points is usually enough to stay up?

It has been tradition for many years that 40 points is enough to keep teams in the Premier League. However, this number has been decreasing in recent years, with 34-36 having been more than enough in recent times. 

4. Is it still rare for teams to survive after being bottom at Christmas?

Yes, it is still very rare for teams who are bottom of the table at Christmas to survive in the Premier League. The last team to achieve this was Wolverhampton Wanderers. They were bottom of the table at Christmas 2022, but produced a remarkable recovery to finish 13th.

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